Market Growth Rate |
Market Growth Rate
Market Growth Rate
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Market Growth Rate
A simple means of forecasting the market growth rate is to extrapolate historical data into the future. While this method may provide a first-order estimate, it does not predict important turning points. A better method is to study growth drivers such as demographic information and sales growth in complementary products. Such drivers serve as leading indicators that are more accurate than simply extrapolating historical data.
Important inflection points in the market growth rate sometimes can be predicted by constructing a product diffusion curve. The shape of the curve can be estimated by studying the characteristics of the adoption rate of a similar product in the past.
Ultimately, the maturity and decline stages of the product life cycle will be reached. Some leading indicators of the decline phase include price pressure caused by competition, a decrease in brand loyalty, the emergence of substitute products, market saturation, and the lack of growth drivers.
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